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Where Wall Street intersects with the Harris campaign
Despite entering the presidential contest only about three months ago, Vice President Kamala Harris has shattered fund-raising expectations — in large part because she has managed to win over many of the business donors who had been lukewarm about President Biden.
At the same time, the Harris campaign has paid more attention to corporate America’s concerns, and in at least one case has made a tax policy pledge that reflects executives’ interests, The Times’s Andrew Duehren and DealBook’s Lauren Hirsch report.
The big question is whether Wall Street’s growing support will be enough to win over key swing states, like Pennsylvania. The race is still neck-and-neck even though the economy is growing solidly and the stock market is sitting at a record high.
Harris has sought to burnish her capitalist credentials. One of Donald Trump’s most frequent attack lines has been to paint her as a far-left radical who would destroy the economy.
Her defense has been to reach out to top business executives (an effort led in large part by Tony West, Harris’s brother-in-law and Uber’s chief legal officer). That has meant taking meetings across Wall Street and listening to ideas from supporters including Mark Cuban, the billionaire entrepreneur who has pitched ways to bolster artificial intelligence and other areas.
That is being reflected in what Harris has said on the trail, according to The Times:
She has indicated she’d be less zealous about enforcing antitrust — though she hasn’t endorsed calls to remove Lina Khan as chair of the F.T.C. — and she has been more conciliatory to the crypto community;
She has proposed raising the corporate tax rate by less than Biden had proposed and suggested that she wouldn’t seek to tax unrealized investment gains, a proposal that Wall Street donors detest;
She has endorsed the idea of giving more tax breaks to companies that allowed workers to become part owners, an idea popularized by a KKR executive
Is this just campaign rhetoric or a hint of how Harris would govern? Donors see it as the latter: “This is the kind of philosophy we want to hear,” Jon Henes, founder of the consulting firm C Street Advisory Group and a longtime Harris donor, told The Times.
Progressive allies are holding their fire for now. “You see a range of different kind of policies from her,” said Felicia Wong, president of Roosevelt Forward, a progressive advocacy group.
Some prominent backers of Donald Trump remain unconvinced, including Howard Lutnick, the C.E.O. of Cantor Fitzgerald, and Bill Ackman, the hedge fund mogul, who detailed his concerns about Harris in a lengthy social media post this weekend.
The election is too close to call. New national polls suggest that Trump has closed some of the gap with Harris and that he is continuing to make gains among Black and Hispanic voters.
In response, Harris has been spending her huge haul on get-out-the-vote operations.
In other election news: Economists think that Trump’s economic policies would create more inflation and bigger deficits than Harris’s. House Republicans feel good about their chances of keeping a majority, but their Senate counterparts are seeing causes for concern. And an influential Trump adviser said that the former president wouldn’t push for a weaker dollar if elected.
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
Three economists are awarded a Nobel for their work on income inequality. Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson, both of M.I.T., and James Robinson of the University of Chicago were honored for explaining differences in prosperity between nations. (Acemoglu spoke with DealBook this year about why he believes artificial intelligence won’t drastically bolster economic growth.)
The U.S. will deploy troops and an advanced missile system to Israel. It would be the first deployment of American soldiers to the country since the Hamas-led attacks on Oct. 7 last year. The move comes as Israel weighs a military response to a missile barrage by Iran this month. Despite the tensions in the Middle East, the price of Brent crude fell on Monday.
An effort to clamp down on Russia’s oil trade is failing, a report finds. So-called shadow tankers are ferrying nearly 70 percent of Russia’s oil out of the country in defiance of Western-led restrictions, according to a Ukraine-based think tank. The findings underscore the dilemma facing the United States and others: how to deprive Moscow of money to finance its war against Ukraine without disrupting global energy markets.
SpaceX pulls off a major feat of space launch technology. Elon Musk’s company succeeded in not only launching a rocket but also guiding the booster back to base and catching it with giant mechanical arms. The successful test moves SpaceX closer to the goal of creating a reusable space vehicle. Separately, Musk threatened to sue California regulators for denying SpaceX the right to more launches from the state’s central coast, seemingly in part over his political activities.
China keeps investors waiting
Chinese markets rose on Monday on hopes that policymakers were set to unveil a new wave of stimulus measures on top of a package of promises last month that spurred a record rally.
The latest upward moves followed a weekend of mixed news, with the Chinese Finance Ministry signaling that more help was on the way and lackluster economic data giving another clue as to why officials were taking action.
Stocks ended the day higher after a volatile week. The CSI 300 of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed stocks closed 1.9 percent higher after officials said on Saturday that the central government would bolster borrowing to help banks.
Lan Fo’an, China’s finance minister, didn’t offer specifics in the highly anticipated news conference about how much Beijing would borrow or spend, but his comments seemed to be enough for investors.
More bad data released on Sunday showed why officials may be shifting into stimulus mode. China is under deflationary pressure, with both consumer spending and the producer prices index for September coming in worse than analysts’ forecasts.
Confidence hasn’t recovered since the pandemic lockdowns, and a property crisis is still rippling through the wider economy. The wealth of many Chinese is tied up in real estate, which accounts for up to 80 percent of household savings. Consumers have slashed spending as property prices have plunged by a third or more in many cities.
Big brands are also warning about the slowdown. “China is a market where consumers are feeling a bit more constrained, and we’re seeing that in our food business,” Ramon Laguarta, PepsiCo’s C.E.O., said on an earnings call last week, adding, “We’re seeing a deceleration from double-digit to single-digit growth.”
Still, some are becoming more optimistic about the Chinese economy. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for economic growth in China this year to 4.9 percent, from 4.7 percent. Nonetheless, that’s lower than Beijing’s official 5 percent annual growth target.
But some analysts say the officials need to hurry up. “I really think they need to get their act together and announce a stimulus ASAP,” Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for Asia at the investment bank Natixis, told DealBook.
The $20 billion man
As commissioner of the National Football League, Roger Goodell has turned America’s No. 1 sport into the world’s wealthiest sports league.
During the 65-year-old’s tenure, the league has added a game to the regular season and playoff schedule, and has expanded overseas. Ratings are all-conquering, helping the N.F.L. to ink mega deals with broadcasters and streaming platforms — and to add a new type of sponsor: gambling companies.
The league expects to grow revenues to $25 billion by 2027, from about $20 billion now.
Private equity could be key to making that happen. This summer, team owners voted to greenlight the sale of up to 10 percent of a club to P.E. groups, a move that’s expected to push up already sky-high valuations, The Times’s Ken Belson reports.
The N.F.L.’s growth has made Goodell one of America’s best-paid executives. In consecutive fiscal years from April 2019 to March 2021, he received almost $64 million in annual compensation. Goodell will stay in charge until at least March 2027.
Despite the growth he’s overseen, player safety is a concern. A longer season means players have to play more games with less recovery time. Two young stars, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Chris Olave, left Sunday’s games with concussions.
The week ahead
Banks, semiconductors, interest rates and U.S. retail sales will be in focus this week. Here’s what to watch:
Tuesday: Bank of America, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs report quarterly results, with investors expected to home in on what executives have to say about the U.S. economy and household finances. Also reporting are United Airlines, Rio Tinto and UnitedHealth Group.
Wednesday: Morgan Stanley and ASML, a Dutch supplier for the semiconductor industry, are set to issue their latest quarterly reports.
Thursday: It’s decision day for the European Central Bank, which is expected to cut its benchmark rate by another quarter-percentage point — and to repeat that in December — to try and lift the European Union’s sluggish economy. Elsewhere, the markets will be watching U.S. retail sales data.
Netflix; Blackstone; and TSMC, the world’s biggest chipmaker, report results.
Friday: Procter & Gamble and American Express close out a busy earnings week.
THE SPEED READ
Deals
European banking regulators have reportedly suggested that they would approve a UniCredit takeover of the German lender Commerzbank, despite opposition from Berlin. (Bloomberg)
Why private equity firms are pumping money into plumbing, electrical and HVAC businesses. (WSJ)
Elections, politics and policy
President Biden unveiled $612 million in federal aid for areas struck by Hurricanes Helene and Milton as Speaker Mike Johnson suggested that he wouldn’t bring Congress back to Washington to allocate more money. (Bloomberg, Politico)
Can governments get people to have more babies? (NYT)
Best of the rest
“The Secretive Dynasty That Controls the Boar’s Head Brand” (NYT)
Expect to pay more for buttery Christmas treats this year. (Reuters)
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