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The governing party in Georgia, which has increasingly steered the nation toward Russia and China, claimed victory Saturday in a parliamentary election that both the government and the opposition described as decisive for the country’s future.
Georgia’s splintered opposition did not admit defeat, setting the stage for a likely political crisis that could further polarize the struggle between the pro-Western opposition and the governing party, which aims to assert its conservative course. The nation is a strategically important mountainous republic at the center of the Caucasus.
The Election Administration of Georgia, the body that administers elections in the country, reported on Saturday night that the governing Georgian Dream party, which has been in power since 2012, garnered 53 percent of the vote after nearly 72 percent of election precincts reported their results.
Speaking shortly after the polling stations closed, Bidzina Ivanishvili, the billionaire founder and informal leader of Georgian Dream, claimed victory in a speech outside his party’s headquarters in the capital, Tbilisi. He said the vote was “a rare case in the world that the same party would achieve such results for 12 years in such challenging circumstances.”
Mr. Ivanishvili’s speech was followed by fireworks. Cars with Georgian Dream’s insignia drove across Tbilisi, honking in celebration.
The opposition, which has been divided into four main political forces, had claimed victory before preliminary results of exit polls were announced. They referred to results of two exit polls commissioned by opposition-friendly television networks, which predicted that with their votes combined they should receive a majority of seats in Parliament.
After the results were announced, the United National Movement, one of the four main opposition parties, said in a statement that it did not recognize the election’s results as legitimate. “We will fight until the end of this regime,” the statement said.
“European Georgia is winning with 52 percent despite attempts to rig elections and without the votes from diaspora,” said Salome Zourabichvili, Georgia’s president, who has nominal powers but who supports the opposition, referring to one of the opposition-friendly exit polls.
The current shaky situation is likely to resemble the aftermath of the previous parliamentary elections in 2020, when the opposition refused to recognize the results and boycotted hearings of the new parliament for more than five months. The crisis ended after talks between the governing party and the opposition that were mediated by European Union officials resulted in an agreement that resolved the impasse.
This time, however, the stakes are higher, as the governing party has vowed to use a victory to outlaw its opponents, the United National Movement and what it describes as its satellite groups that favor the West.
“There will be a political crisis, but it is hard to predict what form it will take,” said Dimitri Moniava, the head of the Strategic Communications Center, a research group in Tbilisi.
“It will certainly be hard for the splintered opposition to coordinate their actions,” he said after preliminary results were announced. “The opposition made a mistake when it narrowed down the election to a referendum on Europe, forgetting about the economy and social issues.”
But the governing party has little chance of getting a supermajority in Parliament, which it had vowed to use to make some illiberal changes to the Constitution, such as by introducing a package of anti-L.G.B.T.Q. measures.
The opposition, in turn, is unlikely to achieve a decisive defeat that would end Georgian Dream control, a possibility that would have probably allowed opposition groups to steer the country more concretely toward membership in the European Union and NATO.
Still, the results will reverberate in the region and beyond. After more than three decades of being among the most pro-Western states to emerge from the collapse of the Soviet Union, Georgia, a country of 3.7 million people, could join the expanding group of illiberal states that are trying to perform a balancing act between Russia and China, and the West.
“The election will decide whether Georgia will be democratic or authoritarian,” said Giorgi Gakharia, a former prime minister and the leader of the party For Georgia, which is part of the opposition. “The elections will decide Georgia’s future course not for the next four years, but for the next decade.”
On Saturday night, voters in Vake, an upscale district in central Tbilisi, seemed divided over the country’s future course.
“This is the most important vote,” said Natalie Georgadze, 27, an interior designer who voted for the opposition. “If we vote for Georgian Dream, then we go directly to Russia,” she said, adding that she especially feared that the European Union would scrap a visa-free program for entry into nations in the bloc if the governing party stays in power.
Giorgi Kvernadze, 60, an artist, also said the election was pivotal for Georgia, but his preference was different.
“Either we will be with America or with Russia,” he said. “I am in favor of Russia,” Mr. Kvernadze said, adding that Georgia and Russia share traditional Orthodox Christian values.
Giorgi Bizhanishvili, in contrast, said he had lived in Russia in the 1990s and did not want his children “to see what I saw,” which he described as “ruin and devastation.”
“We need to move toward Europe,” he said.
Nana, a 76-year-old philologist who declined to give her last name, said she voted for the governing party because she favored its economic and social policies.
“They are more humane than the opposition,” she said.
Western officials have been watching relations between Russia and the Georgian government with growing alarm.
In Moscow, the authorities have repeatedly praised the decision by Georgia’s government not to impose sanctions on Russia over the war in Ukraine. In May 2023, the Kremlin allowed Georgians to visit Russia without visas — offering them benefits similar to the short-term visa-free travel arrangement Georgians have been allowed in the European Union since 2017. This month, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia further eased regulations for Georgians to enter the country by letting them work and live in Russia for more than 90 days.
Amid these moves, in July the United States said it had suspended $95 million in assistance to Georgia’s government. Last week, the European Union said that Georgia’s potential accession to the bloc had been paused. European officials also threatened to suspend visa-free travel for Georgians if the parliamentary election was deemed not free or fair.
During the campaign, Mr. Ivanishvili has repeatedly blamed the opposition for Georgia’s five-day war with Russia in 2008. He has also called for Georgia to apologize to the people of South Ossetia, which broke away from Georgia in the 1990s and expanded with Russian support in 2008.
Mr. Ivanishvili’s comments were condemned by opposition leaders, who called them “an unprecedented betrayal” and “an insult to the memory of the heroes who sacrificed for our country.” They have also accused him of trying to turn Georgia into an authoritarian and corrupt backyard satellite of Russia.
“He has cornered himself,” said Armaz Akhvlediani, a longtime Georgian lawmaker and former ally of Mr. Ivanishvili. “In this story, he cannot afford to lose.”
Georgia’s president, Ms. Zourabichvili, raised the possibility that she could be impeached and jailed should the governing party win.
“This is an existential election,” she said on Thursday.
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