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Two of the nation’s most-contested battleground states — Pennsylvania and Arizona — illustrate the difficulties each campaign faces in gaining a clear advantage in the final stretch of the 2024 race, with Kamala Harris maintaining a narrow lead in Pennsylvania but Donald J. Trump continuing to hold an advantage in Arizona, according to a new pair of New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls.
The polls, from two states separated by more than 2,000 miles, show the challenge confronting both campaigns as they try to make their closing pitches to a diverse set of voters who have, at times, competing priorities.
In both Arizona and Pennsylvania, Ms. Harris has consolidated support among Democrats since replacing President Biden as the party’s nominee. But Mr. Trump’s strength remains the economy, the issue primarily responsible for his political potency across Arizona and other battleground states this year.
In Pennsylvania, Ms. Harris’s polling lead has been steady, though the state remains tight. Her advantage, 50 percent to 47 percent, falls inside the margin of error. But this was the third Times/Siena survey in two months showing support for Ms. Harris from at least half of the state. (Her lead in the poll was four percentage points when calculated using unrounded figures.)
Fueling Ms. Harris in the state is her commanding lead of nearly 20 percentage points when it comes to handling abortion, her single best issue across battleground states and the second most important concern for Pennsylvania voters.
Both campaigns see Pennsylvania as the most pivotal battleground in this election, and are putting more money, time and energy there than anywhere else, including $350 million in television ads from Ms. Harris, Mr. Trump and their allies.
One recent shift was visible in the education gap, which the polls showed has narrowed for both candidates. Ms. Harris made up ground in the past month among Pennsylvanians without a college degree, while Mr. Trump cut into her advantage with more educated voters.
Mr. Trump’s strength in Pennsylvania remains the economy. He had an 11-point advantage over Ms. Harris on the issue, up from a 4-point gap in September.
In Arizona, Mr. Trump was ahead, 51 percent to 46 percent, or six percentage points when calculated using unrounded figures, nearly unchanged from September, when the poll showed the former president leading, 50 percent to 45 percent.
Victory is far from secured for either candidate in either state. Other surveys from high-quality pollsters have shown tighter races in both states. According to New York Times polling averages, Mr. Trump is ahead by just two percentage points in Arizona, and Ms. Harris is ahead by just one point in Pennsylvania.
Bolstering Mr. Trump’s advantage in Arizona was, once again, the economy. More Arizonans said they preferred him over Ms. Harris on that issue, 56 percent to 41 percent. More Arizonans expect Mr. Trump to be better at helping people like themselves, and he has a slight edge on the question of who would be better at helping the working class. That was a contrast from Pennsylvania, where voters give Ms. Harris similarly narrow advantages on the same questions.
Voters in Arizona were also more inclined than their counterparts in Pennsylvania to say more broadly that Mr. Trump would be better at handling whatever issue they viewed as most important. He has a nine-point advantage on that question in Arizona, even as he and Ms. Harris run even on it in Pennsylvania.
How the polls compare
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